Brazil's economy in 2016

Predicions are often failures. In my humble knowledge, would focus on a few points on Brazil to 2016: 1 - Inevitable increased taxes and possible return of the CPMF tax (which will have an insignificant impact on the balance of public accounts, it comes in a percentage of 0.20% for example). 2 - Our economic matrix not change. Have two concerns that government: to prevent the government from falling and try to pass one or other measure acceptable to the PT (workers party).But is known that structural measures (and more important) will be rejected by the base in House and Senado.Ou is no change in the macroeconomic framework. 3 - The government has no money to subsidize, does not have as lower interest rates (by high inflation) and can not lower taxes (the drop in revenue) .The R$ 80 billion that the government wants to inject via public banks have very limited effect as it represents about 11% of credit in Brazil, moreover, as lending to credit demand is falling? 4 - I find it hard impeachment of President Dilma. The chance of the plate forfeiture would be more logical if found signs of irregularities in campaign spending and using the "machine". 5 - Inflation is expected to yield , low demand ( should be at 7.5 % ) . 6 - Interest shall be in the region of 12.5 % 7 - The government will not some surplus as continue spending more than it collects (including interest and debt domestic debt , an increase of R$ 500 billion in 2016) 8 - our "engine" in recent years were the commodities.With lower growth in China for this year ( +- 5%) and oil price fall, the exporting countries will buy less of our commodities and manufactured goods , offsetting the effect of the devaluation the "real" (R$ 4 = US$ 1).Maybe that agriculture , which has gone relatively well , can suffer this year with falling prices.An increase of 1 % . 9 - The change in GDP should be between -4% and -4.5% (bet this variation by a larger drop in global growth rate - basically slowdown of China's economy, gdp with negative growth in Russia and Brazil, dragging other nations,primarily in South America). 10 - The industrial sector still languishing, low domestic demand and lower demand .A fall of about 8% this year. 11 - The service sector can give any sign of reaction (billing, human resources, consulting) .Maybe an increase of 2%. But the bulk of that potential growth will leave the banking sector, which will have lower profits. 12 - Household consumption will maintain the downward trend (- 4.5%) 13 - negative results can reach around of of 50% (poor credit), which inhibit the demand for credit, that he's been around scarce. 14 - I believe that the unemployment rate is expected to be around 12.5% ​​in December / 2016 basically the output of this severe Brazil's crisis will only come with structural measures (social security, tax system, regulatory frameworks "constant", lower interest expense public debt / lower public debt and better spending the money raised - better management). I do not believe that an improvement will come with this government, because it will not give up its platform, which is basically continue into debt to maintain social spending, not contradicting its allied base with even unpopular measures that are necessary today. I believe a "light at the end of the tunnel", in the economic scenario, only from 2017.